India remains the largest importer of edible oils as the government looks to stabilize prices and become supportive of domestic farming and edible oil producing belts. They have raised the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20%, just this past Friday, as the world's biggest edible oil importer tries to help protect farmers reeling from lower oilseed prices. The move could lift edible oil prices and dampen demand and subsequently reduce overseas purchases of palm oil , soybean oil and sunflower oil. After the duty hike announcement, CBOT soybean oil extended losses and fell more than 2% in Friday's trading. However, for the speculative swing trader, the move lower appears to present an opportunity for a potential long term buy/hold strategy as this particular commodity demands a lower hold margin requirement by most brokerages. There are opportunities to invest in this commodity by way of outright futures or options trades targeting December expiration. 

The most recent lows in the mid-37s we made in mid-August which was just about a month away also forms a longer term Fibonacci retracement price level. If this level holds, we could be targeting the other end of the price spectrum as is demonstrated in the chart below. For this to be a viable investment or trade opportunity, price needs to hold above 38.40 into and past this Sunday's futures market open. The other end of the price spectrum lies somewhere well above 46.75. Use the chart below and download it on here if you wish to see the opportunity past the “sell the India” news bulletin: https://tradeguidance.com/newsletters/soybean-oil-09-15-2024/

Chart for the smaller timeframe

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