“Shootin’ The Bull”

End of Day Market Recap

by Christopher Swift

​10/29/2024

Live Cattle:​ 

The lion's share of increased open interest last week took place between $186.25 and $189.50 for a $3.25 range via the December contract.  At today's close of $187.82, it appears that a portion of the new longs are already upside down after a weeks' worth of trading.  Probably more than that, today's trade alone took out $1.67 of the $3.25 range.  It's an interesting function of being long at the top, with only one way to make money, it goes higher, in comparison to what is believed the producer marketing inventory at the top end of the price range solidifying his marketing's with risk shifted from them to those new long speculators or funds.  Regardless a lot of work was done last week in shifting risk around.  Now we wait to see if the increase in risk from spec longs can push prices higher than cash, or have producers decreased their risks by having relinquished potential adverse price fluctuation at the top end of the known market. ​

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Feeder Cattle:​

Traders knocked out all but $.60 of the past two weeks of higher trading, up to today.  These past two weeks have offered a higher price range to accomplish marketing's in.  Taking advantage of the higher trading is believed having been accomplished with the recommendations of the options spreads and vocalization of the fundamental changes the agenda has produced in beef production. There isn't a great deal more to discuss as with recommendations made, there shouldn't be much to do until a move of some significance materializes.  ​​

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​Hogs:

​Hog futures were sharply higher in the front end and higher in the back.  The index is up $.12 at $85.55​

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Corn:  

​Not much took place in the grains and oilseeds.  Wheat got a bad crop rating and gave it a little boost.  It will be interesting to see what comes of the forecasted rains for the wheat belt.  The corn chart is from the Mid-Day cattle comment, where I recommended you use the lower carry found on the board to buy the $4.60 July corn calls.  Again, while this won't do anything for basis, it will lock in price.    ​​

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Energy:

Energy saw both sides of unchanged but produced a very small trading range today. Maybe a hesitation for still lower or attempting to carve out a bottom.  I think it is carving out a bottom and recommend you use the unexpected drop to start, do more of, or wrap up fuel needs into spring.  This is a sales solicitation. ​​

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Bonds:

​Bonds made new lows from contract high today. The US dollar continues to scream.  I don't understand the price action or the what the Fed is attempting to do.  Inflation continues, and due to consumers continuing to balk, it appears that government spending is a problem with this issue.  I think it important to consider what each candidate will do towards government spending.  While Trump may or may not curb some of government spending, I have to believe that Harris will simply continue, as she has stated, with the Biden administrations giveaways.  We will know more in a week from today.​​​​​​​​

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This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.