The wheat market is falling lower on Thursday, as losses are deep across the three exchanges.  Chicago SRW futures are 17 to 20 cents in the red. KC HRW futures are posting 16 to 18 cent losses at midday on Thursday. MPLS spring wheat is also falling, with contracts down 13 to 15 cents.

NOAA’s 7-day QPF shows precip picking up in parts of the Eastern half of the US over the next week, mainly in the early portion of week. The Plains are expected to see lighter totals, mainly in the eastern portions. 

Export Sales data for the week that ended on February 20 was released this morning, with 269,008 MT reported in bookings for 2024/25. That was below the 300,000-600,000 MT in estimates and at a 5-week low. Taiwan was the largest buyer of 103,400 NT, with 95,500 MT sold to Mexico. Unknown destinations had 102,300 MT in net reductions, likely switched to a destination. New crop bookings were at just 5,000 MT on the low side of the estimated range of 0-100,000 MT. 

The annual USDA Outlook Forum showed the US wheat acreage total pegged at 47 million acres according to the Office of the Chief Economist. That was up 0.9 million acres from last year. Yield was estimated at 50.1 due to a ‘long term linear trend.’ Stocks were forecast at 826 mbu. We will get our first official look at acreage in the March Intentions report and the official balance sheet in the May WASDE.

Russian wheat production is estimated at 81-82 MMT for 2025 according to IKAR.

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.47, down 19 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.62, down 17 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.68 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.80 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.86 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.03 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents,